Hang on to your chads
by Laura Kiritsy
associate editor
Wednesday Jan 16, 2008

Activists in Florida have about two weeks to put a constitutional amendment banning same-sex couples from marrying on the general election ballot next November. If they succeed, the question could prove to be a factor in the presidential election.

Florida, along with Pennsylvania and Ohio, comprise the crucial Electoral College swing states in the presidential sweepstakes; with 27 electoral votes up for grabs, Florida is the biggest prize of the three. Since 1960, no candidate has won the White House without carrying two of those three states. In 2004, for instance, President George Bush won Florida and Ohio. And evidence strongly suggests that W’s narrow two percent margin of victory over Democrat John Kerry in the latter state came courtesy of Ohio’s anti-gay marriage amendment. So could an anti-gay marriage ballot initiative in Florida be an election-swinging boon to the GOP in 2008?

It depends on who the general election nominees are, say activists and observers who spoke with Bay Windows for this story. It also depends on how Democrats, who for the most part have not articulated their more nuanced positions on legal protections for same-sex relationships very well on the stump, deal with the issue. Most likely, however, the issue of marriage equality won’t be as potent as it was in 2004, when the historic Goodridge ruling sparked a nationwide backlash -- led by the Republican Party -- that saw 11 states pass anti-gay marriage constitutional amendments on the same day that Bush won re-election.

"Gay marriage is not going to be a national issue like it was in 2004," says Daniel Smith, an associate professor and the interim director of the political campaigning program at the University of Florida. Foremost, Smith notes, unlike in 2004 Florida is the only state that will have a marriage amendment on the ballot come November.

Somewhat surprisingly, Republican Gov. Charlie Crist isn’t so thrilled about that prospect anymore. Under his predecessor Jeb Bush, the Florida Republican Party dropped $300,000 on the signature gathering efforts of Florida4Marriage.org, the group sponsoring the amendment, according to campaign finance reports. That’s a pretty hefty chunk of the $575,386 the group had raised as of last December. But shortly after he took office last year, Crist asked the state party to stop funding the effort, saying he wanted to focus on raising teacher salaries, trimming property taxes and combating climate change.

"It’s not an issue that moves me," Crist recently told local reporters. (Crist, a divorced, single man who fended off rumors that he is gay during his campaign, did sign a petition supporting the amendment while he was running.) Of course the governor will likely be less laid back about the amendment if it starts looking like the presidential election outcome could hinge on Florida, as it infamously did in 2000.

In a similar vein, the presidential candidates have taken little notice of the amendment. After the mid-December announcement by Florida4Marriage.org, the sponsors of the amendment, that it had collected the more than 611,000 signatures necessary to put the measure on the ballot, only the GOP’s Fred Thompson released a statement. "Florida’s marriage amendment will have my support in 2008," said Thompson, whose once buzzed-about campaign has failed to catch fire among the GOP’s base of religious conservatives. Even Mitt Romney, who last September ran radio ads in Iowa condemning a ruling by a state court that ruled in favor of marriage equality and touting his support for a federal marriage amendment, had nothing to say. That’s a far cry from Nov. 19, 2003 -- just one day after the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court released the Goodridge decision -- when The New York Times declared same-sex marriage "a thorny issue for 2004 race" in a story in which Christian Coalition President Robert Combs said, "This is not going to stop here -- this is going to be in the forefront for a long time to come." (Backers of the ballot amendment believed last month that they had collected enough signatures to get on the November ballot. But Florida election officials announced last week that a months-long internal audit of the signature count for the marriage amendment question and a second question governing land use showed that both campaigns had fallen short of the signatures needed. Florida4Marriage.org now has until Feb. 1 to collect approximately 22,000 signatues.)


Next: Marriage still a ’powerful’ wedge issue

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